Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
