Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.